--- title: When the World Feels Uncertain, What Happens to the Housing Market? description: What happens to home prices during global conflict? A look at housing history, affordability, and what matters for buyers and sellers in southern Maine. image: https://priscillaweston.com/hubfs/moody%20new%20england%20home.jpeg --- [![2025logo](https://priscillaweston.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2025logo.png?width=85&height=85&name=2025logo.png "2025logo")](https://www.priscillaweston.com) [![](https://priscillaweston.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2025logo.png?width=250&height=250&name=2025logo.png)](http://Priscilla%20Band%20Weston,%20Realtor) [![](https://priscillaweston.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2025logo.png?width=250&height=250&name=2025logo.png)](http://Priscilla%20Band%20Weston,%20Realtor) This is a search field with an auto-suggest feature attached. - There are no suggestions because the search field is empty. - [Home](https://priscillaweston.com) - [Listings](https://priscillaweston.com/listing) - [About](https://priscillaweston.com/about-us) - [Contact](https://priscillaweston.com/contact1) - [Blog](https://priscillaweston.com/blog) This is a search field with an auto-suggest feature attached. - There are no suggestions because the search field is empty. # When the World Feels Uncertain, What Happens to the Housing Market? by [Priscilla Weston](https://priscillaweston.com/blog/author/priscilla-weston) | Mar 12, 2026 There's a particular kind of question that comes up whenever the news gets unsettling. *Should we wait?* Wait to buy a house. Wait to sell. Wait until the economy feels more predictable, the headlines calm down, or someone can tell us with reasonable confidence what's going to happen next. I understand the instinct. Buying a house is a pretty significant financial decision, and it's hard to feel enthusiastic about taking on a mortgage when the rest of the world seems to be doing cartwheels. But here's something worth knowing: **historically, the housing market hasn't always reacted to global conflict the way you might expect.** ## What history actually tells us During the 1990–91 Gulf War, the United States entered a recession, and housing activity slowed. But national home prices still rose modestly in nominal terms. Mortgage rates also declined, from approximately 9.7% in mid-1990 to around 8.2% by the end of 1991. The economy was struggling, but the housing market wasn't responding to the war alone. Something similar happened around the 2003 Iraq War. Mortgage rates were hovering around 5–6%, homeownership was approaching 69%, and home prices continued to climb. Now, that doesn't mean global events have no impact on housing. They absolutely can, particularly when they affect energy prices, inflation, employment, or consumer confidence. But the important distinction is that **housing tends to respond to the economic consequences of those events, rather than the headlines themselves.** And those consequences aren't always what we'd predict. ## Closer to home, the math looks a little different Here in southern Maine, we've been dealing with a housing market shaped by years of limited inventory and substantial price growth. At the time I originally wrote this, typical home prices in York County were hovering around $500,000–$530,000, depending on the measure, and available inventory represented roughly two to three months of supply. For perspective, five to six months of supply has traditionally been used as a rough benchmark for a balanced market, although that isn't a universal rule. So even as homes began taking longer to sell and buyers became more deliberate, we weren't suddenly looking at an oversupply of houses. The market was changing pace. That's different from falling apart. ## It's not just the mortgage. It's everything else. One thing I think gets overlooked in conversations about housing affordability is how much attention we give to mortgage rates. Yes, rates matter. A lot. But historically speaking, a mortgage rate in the 6–7% range isn't particularly unusual. For substantial portions of the past four decades, rates were considerably higher. What's different today is what those rates are being applied to. Home prices in Maine climbed dramatically during the pandemic years. Between 2021 and 2025, statewide prices increased by roughly 37%, depending on the data series used. Meanwhile, groceries, insurance, utilities, vehicles, and just about everything else required to keep a household functioning became more expensive. And nobody gets to pay their mortgage in isolation from the rest of their life. You still need to buy groceries. Heat the house. Replace the tires. Take the kids to the dentist. All the ordinary, unglamorous expenses that don't disappear just because you've finally found a house you love. **Affordability isn't just about whether you qualify for the mortgage. It's about whether you can comfortably live your life after paying it.** That's a distinction worth making. ## So what should buyers and sellers actually be watching? Rather than trying to predict what a geopolitical event might do to home prices, I pay closer attention to a handful of things: - **Employment:** Are people working, earning, and feeling secure enough to make long-term financial commitments? - **Inflation:** Are everyday expenses stabilizing, or are household budgets continuing to tighten? - **Mortgage rates:** What does the monthly payment actually look like at today's rates? - **Local inventory:** How many homes are available, and how quickly are they selling? - **Pricing:** Are sellers adjusting their expectations to meet the market we're actually in? That last one is particularly important. A house can be a wonderful property and still be overpriced. A market can have limited inventory and still contain opportunities for buyers who are paying attention. Both things can be true. ## A little perspective goes a long way I'm not particularly interested in telling people that it's always a great time to buy or sell real estate. Sometimes it isn't. Sometimes waiting makes sense. Sometimes buying now makes sense. And sometimes the best decision is to stay exactly where you are and put your money toward something else. But I also wouldn't make a major housing decision based entirely on what the news is doing this week. The world has rarely offered us perfectly calm conditions in which to make important decisions. What we *can* do is look carefully at our finances, understand what's happening in our local market, and make decisions that still make sense a few years from now. Even if the headlines change tomorrow. --- *Market figures reflect conditions at the time this article was originally written and may have changed since publication.* *I'm Priscilla Weston, a Realtor with Archer & Associates, serving southern Maine and the New Hampshire Seacoast. I write about housing, the local market, and the things worth considering before making a move.* *Priscilla ✨* - - - - Recent posts [I Have Trust Issues With Freshly Painted Basements (And Other Things I Notice at House Showings)](https://priscillaweston.com/blog/i-have-trust-issues-with-freshly-painted-basements-and-other-things-i-notice-at-house-showings) [Apparently, This Is the Best Week of the Year to Buy a House](https://priscillaweston.com/blog/apparently-this-is-the-best-week-of-the-year-to-buy-a-house) [A Small House for Someone With Big Plans](https://priscillaweston.com/blog/a-small-house-for-someone-with-big-plans) [I Wish I Could Clone My Last Seller](https://priscillaweston.com/blog/i-wish-i-could-clone-my-last-seller) [The Best Homes Leave Room for Possibility](https://priscillaweston.com/blog/the-best-homes-leave-room-for-possibility) Keller Williams Coastal and Lakes & Mountains Realty 750 Lafayette Rd. #201 Portsmouth, NH 03801 [O: 603.610.8500](tel:317-234-5678) [C: 207.218.0240](tel:317-234-5678) FOLLOW ALONG [Follow us on Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/priscillabandweston) [Follow us on LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/priscillabandweston/) - HOME - [LISTINGS](https://priscillaweston.com/listings) - [ABOUT](https://priscillaweston.com/about) - [CONTACT](https://priscillaweston.com/contact) - SEARCH © 2024 Priscilla Band Weston, REALTOR |  Privacy Policy ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Priscilla Weston", "url" : "https://priscillaweston.com/blog/author/priscilla-weston" }, "dateModified" : "2026-10-17T12:24:24.843Z", "datePublished" : "2026-03-12T16:15:00.000Z", "headline" : "When the World Feels Uncertain, What Happens to the Housing Market?", "image" : [ "https://priscillaweston.com/hubfs/moody%20new%20england%20home.jpeg" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://priscillaweston.com/blog/when-the-world-feels-uncertain-what-happens-to-the-housing-market", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://priscillaweston.com/hubfs/2025logo.png" }, "name" : "Priscilla Band Weston, Realtor" } } ```